Monday, October 29, 2012

OWH Says Race Tight (Boy Also Cried Wolf Again)

I've heard Rush Limbaugh say the press gins up polls to make news. I'm not ready to say that about the Omaha World-Herald, but . . .

The OWH commissioned a poll that showed Deb Fischer's lead over Bob Kerrey narrowing to 3 percentage points.

Here are some recent OWH polls compared to the election result.

2010

OWH: Lee Terry 44%, Tom White 39%.
Election: Terry 61%, White 39%.

2004

OWH: Jeff Fortenberry 42%, Matt Connealy 38%.
Election: Fortenberry 54%, Connealy 43%.

2000

OWH: Ben Nelson 49%, Don Stenberg 37%.
Election: Nelson 51%, Stenberg 49%.

1998

OWH: Lee Terry 54%, Michael Scott 31%.
Election: Terry 66%, Scott 34%.

1996

OWH: Ben Nelson 49%, Chuck Hagel 44%.
Election: Hagel 56%, Nelson 42%.

OWH polls are regularly low on Republican candidates by double digits.

The Fischer campaign cited a poll showing Fischer 55%, Kerrey 39%. Before you laugh that off, remember that polling cited by Fischer in the home stretch of the primary campaign turned out to be accurate.

The wolf eventually did show up. Maybe the wolf will show up this time. Otherwise the OWH needs to find a new pollster.

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