Thursday, January 17, 2008

Presidential Primary : In Wide-Open Contest, McCain Will Fade

As a Republican, I am having no heartburn over the failure of one nominee to separate himself from the pack in the GOP primary competition. I'm also having no heartburn over the early traction John McCain is getting.

I don't mind seeing the nomination up for grabs. It can be healthy if everybody fights fairly and no one stoops to the kind of cheap shots that could leave people and factions bitter enough to sit out the general election.

In my lifetime, the national political conventions have been scripted pep rallies. The idea that some real politics and heavy lifting might occur is intriguing.

Click here for a different take on a brokered convention.

Meanwhile I heard from someone the other day bemoaning the early McCain success.

I met McCain when he was making the rounds in 1999 (in preparation for the 2000 race) and I was a writer on the editorial staff of the Omaha World-Herald. Candidates who want to do well in western Iowa often visit the World-Herald to seek an endorsement.

There were some gaps in his logic on various issues and he was thin-skinned when challenged.

In the New Hampshire primary, anyone can vote for anyone. Outsiders can come into New Hampshire and vote. Some news reports said Democrats and Independents gravitated to McCain. And there are a lot of cranky New England liberals even among Republicans.

In states where only registered party members pick the party's nominee, I think McCain will suffer.

One sensible thing John Edwards has said was after New Hampshire. He noted that only 1% of the people have voted.

I'm glad Mitt Romney held home court advantage in Michigan. If Fred Thompson can't get traction on super Tuesday, then I hope Romney pulls through.

If McCain sustains momentum, that would give me heartburn, but I don't see it happening.

1 comment:

Rick Galusha said...

Ah Chip, you're pink and you probably have a commie flag tacked upside of your garage.

Rick Galusha